BREAKING: Race to the Table: What nation will finalize the first US tariff deal for 2025?

Race to the Table: What nation will finalize the first US tariff deal for 2025?

Senior Editor JV Charles of jvpolitical.com authored this piece which appeared on May 3, 2025

The United States fights through tariffs as a broadsword in the 2025 battlefield of global trade during President Donald Trump’s second term. I

n April 2025 President Trump announced “Liberation Day” which initiated market turmoil by enforcing steep reciprocal tariffs on imports with 145% targeting China while Japan and South Korea faced tariffs of 24% and 25% respectively and a flat 20% on other countries and allowed most nations a 90-day period to negotiate trade agreements.

The question on everyone’s mind: Which nation will negotiate the first agreement to bypass US tariffs amid this competitive battle?

At jvpolitical.com we examine the political tactics and economic forces fueling this worldwide competition where India leads and Canada follows closely.

Trump’s Tariff Gambit: A Political and Economic Power Play

The tariff strategy President Trump employs represents both an economic approach and a political declaration.

Trump has intensified his tariff policy since becoming president because he failed to reach an agreement with China which now faces a 145% tariff.

The April 2 announcement of a 90-day negotiation window for other countries represents a strategic move to allow allies such as the EU, Japan and South Korea time to negotiate while maintaining ongoing pressure.

Trump claims this will bring in $2 billion daily in revenue—a figure some economists dispute as inflated—but the political intent is clear:

The policy aims to coerce countries into negotiations while giving American manufacturing precedence and demonstrating power to his home supporters.

Under the USMCA agreement Canada and Mexico enjoy special conditions where goods meeting standards avoid tariffs but face 25% duties if they fail to comply.

Both nations gained an initial advantage yet the expanded threat of tariffs caused intense diplomatic negotiations to commence. Posts on X highlight the sentiment:

Countries are urgently seeking agreements after Trump announced that 75 nations want to discuss deals with him.

The approach described at jvpolitical.com demonstrates Trump’s typical power strategy that combines economic tools to adjust global partnerships while promoting his America First policy.

India’s Head Start: Modi and Trump’s February Pact

India stands ready to secure the victory ahead of its competitors. In February 2025, Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed to move toward a trade agreement which resulted in significant advantages for Delhi.

X social media posts reveal that key Trump administration officials Peter Navarro and Scott Bessent have announced that a deal with India is about to be finalized.

This aligns with India’s strategic positioning: India provides a strategic partnership to the US in the Indo-Pacific region due to its emerging economic power status and its role as a counterbalance to China.

India’s motivations are clear. Indian exporters in textiles, pharmaceuticals and technology sectors anticipate major losses due to an impending 20% tariff.

An agreement with the United States would eliminate these tariffs and strengthen Washington relations which would help enhance Modi’s domestic reputation as an international leader.

This political strategy aligns with Trump’s approach of rewarding allies while targeting China as an opponent. But challenges remain: The protectionist policies of India including high tariffs on US products like Harley-Davidson motorcycles have continually frustrated American negotiators.

Will India provide sufficient concessions to finalize the deal or will persistent disagreements about intellectual property rights hinder progress?

Canada’s Diplomatic Push: Mark Carney’s White House Visit

Canada follows India closely under the leadership of their new Prime Minister Mark Carney.

Following his electoral triumph Mark Carney will soon make a trip to the White House which reflects Canada’s immediate need to establish a tariff agreement.

Under the USMCA framework Canada enjoys a natural benefit because the majority of its exported products meet the required rules of origin which prevents tariff imposition.

The Canadian automotive and steel sectors face 25% tariffs on non-compliant goods which costs Canadian exporters billions.

Carney’s visit is a political balancing act. The Canadian government committed $5.6 billion to assist workers and industries affected by US tariffs to gain favor with the progressive base.

He faces the challenge of meeting Trump’s demands for expanded market access to dairy and agriculture sectors while dealing with Canada’s entrenched supply management system.

The diplomatic skills Carney developed during his time as Bank of England governor could turn out to be a defining advantage according to jvpolitical.com.

A trade agreement with Canada would demonstrate President Trump’s readiness to reward American allies yet establish a standard that pressures India to follow suit.

The EU’s Collective Defense strategy reveals a united yet gradual response.

In response to a 20% tariff the European Union has shifted to a more cautious strategy. Friedrich Merz from Germany demonstrated leadership by halting EU’s tariff plans against US bourbon and motorcycles to pursue diplomatic negotiations.

The EU’s strategy reflects its political structure: The requirement for 27 member states to agree on trade policy results in slower decision-making than agile countries like India or Canada.

The European Union holds considerable influence thanks to its massive $16 trillion market power.

The implementation of Trump’s tariffs revealed existing fractures in relationships between the United States and its European allies.

The United States recognizes the European Union as a major ally due to its military cooperation and joint efforts against China but nevertheless approaches it as a trade opponent.

This has fueled political debates within the EU: The EU must choose between complying with Trump’s demands or maintaining its stance at the risk of further conflict.

The EU’s delayed negotiations might prevent them from achieving the “first deal” distinction at jvpolitical.com but their final trade agreement could establish new standards for equitable trade which will guide smaller nations.

Japan and South Korea: Allies Under Pressure

Japan and South Korea find themselves in a vulnerable situation after receiving 24% and 25% tariffs respectively.

The United States considers Japan and South Korea essential partners for its Indo-Pacific strategy due to their military base hosting status but President Trump’s tariffs classify these allies as economic competitors.

The critical Japanese auto sector endures significant distress from the 24% tariff that causes Toyota and Honda to suffer substantial financial damage.

The South Korean economy faces challenges because tariffs threaten its vital semiconductor and electronics exports.

The two countries want to reach agreements but political challenges obstruct their negotiation progress.

The Prime Minister of Japan who took office in late 2024 must handle internal demands to safeguard exporters and continue strengthening ties with the United States.

President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea must avoid an economic recession while managing existing political turmoil. Under Trump’s reciprocal trade policy both countries need to make major trade concessions and this could create opportunities for US beef and car exports.

Will India and Canada’s speed in trade negotiations enable them to surpass Japan and South Korea or will their strategic significance push Trump to give them priority?

The China Factor: A Trade War in Full Swing

The Trump administration imposed a 145% tariff on China which excluded it from the 90-day trade negotiation pause and increased beyond the original campaign pledge of 60%.

This has triggered a fierce response: Chinese retaliatory tariffs of 125% against American products have severely damaged farmers in states such as Iowa and Nebraska.

Trump’s exclusion of China from negotiations signals a broader political strategy:

The broader political strategy involves economically isolating Beijing and uniting allies against it. US consumers experience increased prices while American farmers lose market opportunities which makes people question whether this approach can be politically sustained.

We believe at jvpolitical.com that excluding China from trade negotiations presents both opportunities and challenges.

This move reinforces Trump’s reputation as a China hawk which pleases his supporters but could also push away rural voters who voted for him.

A fast agreement with either India or Canada would serve as a political victory for Trump that he can showcase internationally.

The Political Stakes: Who Wins the Narrative?

The quest for the first US tariff agreement extends beyond economic aspects to become a matter of political appearance.

Trump would demonstrate his tariff approach’s effectiveness by reaching a trade agreement with either India or Canada because it would show his capability to control major global economies.

It would also give him a talking point for the 2026 midterms: “I made trade fair for America.” A successful trade agreement would strengthen Modi or Carney domestically by demonstrating their skill in managing through Trump’s erratic trade approach.

The political implications of this situation reach far beyond the negotiation discussions. Vietnam experiences a 46% tariff and 7% stock market crash leading to close monitoring of developments.

Entering into an agreement with India might inspire smaller nations to pursue their personal trade deals while securing a Canadian agreement could show Trump’s readiness to make concessions to allies.

Stalled negotiations may lead to a global trade war that will cause widespread political consequences for all parties involved.

What’s Next: A Deal by Summer?

The 90-day pause which began on February 3, 2025 will conclude on July 2, 2025 requiring nations to complete negotiations by early July.

India has taken a lead in negotiations but Canada’s imminent discussions with the White House may alter current standings. The EU, Japan and South Korea compete but their intricate political relations could lead to delays in their advancement.

According to jvpolitical.com forecasts India will finalize its deal by mid-June with Canada expected to follow unless Trump disrupts the timeline as he frequently does.

Which nation do you predict will finalize the first US tariff agreement in 2025? Does Trump’s plan succeed in boosting America’s international standing or lead to its failure?

Leave your feedback in the comments and follow jvpolitical.com for updates on this emerging trade conflict.

Refrences:

The Wall Street Journal. (2025). “Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ Tariffs Shake Global Trade.” Retrieved from wsj.com.

Reuters. (2025). Sources report India and US nearing a tariff agreement. Retrieved from reuters.com.

CBC News. (2025). Mark Carney will travel to the White House to participate in discussions about tariffs. Retrieved from cbc.ca.

Bloomberg. (2025). The European Union halts its retaliatory tariffs to prioritize negotiations with the United States. Retrieved from bloomberg.com.

The New York Times. (2025). “China’s Retaliatory Tariffs Hit US Farmers Hard.” Retrieved from nytimes.com.